The sudden downfall of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh was greeted with jubilation by protesters on the streets of Dhaka. It may provoke unease in New Delhi, Beijing and Washington.
Bangladesh has gone from being one of the world’s poorest countries to an economic powerhouse and a global textiles juggernaut. Steady growth led its per-capita GDP to overtake that of neighboring India five years ago.
India was a major patron of Hasina. Prime Minister Narendra Modi saw in her Awami League a moderate bulwark against Islamist political forces in Bangladesh, and his administration notably refrained from criticizing the bloody crackdown of the student-led uprising that led to her resignation.
It’s not surprising that Modi has since provided her a safe refuge since she fled the country yesterday. Still, the loss of a close ally in Dhaka is sure to provoke worry in New Delhi over who might replace her.
Hasina also managed the feat of warmer ties with India’s historic rival, China, with her administration working to secure a $5 billion loan from Beijing.
Bangladesh was the first South Asian country to sign up to its Belt and Road infrastructure program. Her departure means the loss of a partner — though Beijing may not be too fussed if it leaves egg on Modi’s face.
Investors are betting on a smooth transition with a key Bangladesh stock index surging by the most since March 2020.
As for the US, Hasina’s ouster presents the opportunity for a fresh start. The two countries have long enjoyed warm ties, but Hasina’s authoritarian turn drew increasing criticism from Washington, which imposed sanctions on Bangladeshi political and military figures.
The emergence of a more liberal leadership will undoubtedly be the great hope of Washington’s idealists. — Dan Strumpf